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Saturday, December 31, 2016

Last signal for 2016 $MCO

Happy New Year everyone!

Hope this year has been great to you, with positive returns and small losses.

I truly hope that bringing this blog online will push your portfolio forward into the future and get you some extra cushion in savings.

For the last trading day of the year the algorithm posted a Sell signal for $MCO (Moody's Corp.), which closed on Friday at $94.27.

The stock has been on a negative trend for about two months, and is really close now to support levels from the start of the year - around $92.50.

I would still wait to see a breach of the level before entering a Short position or even selling here. Although as mentioned here, the Sell signal simply means a positive return is not to be expected anytime soon, so I wouldn't cross my fingers for a recovery to the upside.



Good luck and have a great start to the new year!

To see general results of the algorithm click here.
Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)

TK

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Thursday, December 29, 2016

New signals for December 29 $HAS

Hey everyone,

During the holidays stock market activity does feel a bit slower (although yesterday we some major distribution among several stocks, $NVDA being one of them). My algorithm has not posted any signal in the last few sessions.

However, a new Sell signal has been posted this morning for $HAS (closed at $77.62 last night).

The stock has been a darling for most of 2016 and has peaked at $87.96 but has since been a major downtrend and is currently down some 12% from that level.
It would appear from the chart that the stock can still go much lower, and perhaps return to where it started 2016 around $66. But before that, $HAS will need to cross under the $70 price level, which seems to have some resistance.

I would definitely not buy here, and would probably not enter Short either, perhaps on a recovery to the upside.



To see general results of the algorithm click here.
Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)

TK

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Saturday, December 24, 2016

New signals 24-12-2016 $JWN $RHT

Happy Holidays everyone,

The last few days were pretty quiet, I guess most traders on Wall St. are already on their holidays.

There are two new Sell signals for the next trading session:

$JWN (Nordstrom Inc) as you probably have already noticed, retailers were hit pretty hard lately, as much of the retail shopping in the holidays is going online.
$JWN's last closing price was $48.75, as of December 23rd.
I would enter a Short position at the next trading session with a stop-loss at $49.99 (risk: 3.7%) and price target at around $45 (reward: 6.9%). A nice risk: reward ratio of 1.9.



$RHT (Red Hat Inc)
Is just technically broken after its gap-down of some 11%.
Would not touch it in the near-term. Some lower prices are possible, and according to Fib retracement the next drop could take it 65.69. If I would enter a Short position in the next trading session I would definitely place a stop-loss at the 50% Fib retracement of $71.99.


To see general results of the algorithm click here.
Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)

TK

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

On watch for today 21-12-2016 $PRGO

New Buy signal for $PRGO (Perrigo). The stock closed yesterday at $84.72.

$PRGO has been trending on the negative side since mid-2015.
I

As can be shown on the above chart, the suggested move provides a 2.5 risk:reward ratio, which is pretty attractive. Look for a bounce on the upside in the near-term.

To see general results of the algorithm click here.

Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)
TK


Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

*UPDATED 12:30EST* Commentary for 12-20-2016 $SPG $RL

This just in:

New Buy signal for $SPG (Simon Property Group)

New Sell Signal for $RL (Ralph Lauren)

More to come on the afternoon with price targets and some technical analysis for each signal.

****Updated on 12:30 EST****

Now that I have some time, here's the technical analysis on $SPG and $RL:

$SPG: Hasn't really changed since the opening bell, currently trades at $182.46

Technically speaking, I kinda scratch my head on this one, because it does not look poised for an upside breakout. It DOES look like the stock hit support at $174.91 and this area will probably be a good stop loss for a Long position (risk: 4%).
As for price target - once the stock crosses $187.3 its next resistance seems to be at $194 (reward: 6.3%)
You're looking at a risk:reward of approximately 1.5. Not great. Maybe wait for a little pullback and near $180 you'll get a better ratio.
I actually would not enter at this point. But I am only here to post what the algorithm tells me. As usual, you should do your own due diligence before entering a position!



$RL: Also little changed, currently trading at $93.25

This stock has seen major breakout to the negative in the last six trading sessions, having fallen from $108 to almost $93, that's about 13.8% drop in 6 days. My algorithm suggests if you had a position and had not yet sold it, now would be a good time to sell. Technically speaking, the stock did break a major support line on the Daily chart, so it could get worse. I would enter a Short position here with a stop loss at $96.25 (risk: 3.2%) for a price target of $84 (reward: 10%) to test May support.
With a risk:reward ratio of 3.12 this is definitely worth a shot.

I may enter a position with options in the next 72 hours.




To see general results of the algorithm click here.

Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links).

TK



Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Commentary for 12-17-2016 $MAT

UltimateAlgorithm posted a Sell signal for $MAT (Mattel Inc) this morning.

The stock has been declining down range since its August highs, and is now close to breaking down and filling a gap made on February '16 at $27.73-$28.36 price range.
One may enter a short position below $28.45 and put a stop loss at $30 (risk 5.8%) for a target of $27.70-ish (about 3% reward). Overall not a great trade, and as mentioned in my post about how the algorithm works, I usually do not place a short position when a Sell is signaled - I simply exit a Long position if one exists (one does not, for me at least).




To see general results of the algorithm click here.
Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)


Have a great weekend!
TK

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

Friday, December 16, 2016

My Essential Reading List

These are the very first (and greatest, in my opinion) stock analysis and stock pick books that i've read when I started my journey (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links):



The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham - this is THE stock analysis book to read. I have gained much insight as to how to look at stocks, how to screen for them using fundamental analysis. A must-read!


Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques by Sheldon Natenberg - I have searched for a long time a book which explains options and option strategies in a simple, yet advanced, way. This has to be it. After reading this book you will have a pretty good understanding on how options work, how their prices are affected by the underlying asset and other parameters, and a general feel and insight for trading strategies.


How to Make Money in Stocks, by William J. O'Neil - probably my first "real" investing book. After reading this book you will have a basic investing system and fundamental as well as technical analysis understanding of stocks. It's a pretty simple, yet sophisticated screening system which can lead to great results in the stock market.


Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas - a must-read for thinking like a pro trader. Investing, especially trading, is a mental roller-coaster, and without proper training one may not survive in the markets. Mark Douglas writes extraordinarily well about trading psychology and mindset required to succeed. I have read it more than a couple times every time I hit a rut in the stock market.

How UltimateAlgorithm signals usually pan out

The UltimateAlgorithm is quite complicated. 

It's actually pretty smart, and can adapt to past performance of a stock. It is based on Technical Analysis and combines several indicators and moving averages to reach a daily result of Buy/Hold-position or Sell position. 
It also provides me with a general market health indicator, stating whether to buy into dips and enter new Long positions or not.
Usually when a Buy signal is posted, the stock may push higher quickly within the next 5-10 trading days. I have seen some stocks make a 10% move within a month of the Buy signal.
When a Sell signal is posted, it does not necessarily mean that you need to Short the stock. It just means that the algorithm believes there is low risk-reward in the stock, and that outperformance is at a very low probability.

Usually when a stock is given a Sell signal it may go sideways for a long time (months even) before breaking out or breaking down so consider buying stocks instead of options if you can (to not lose premium on time spent)

There are exceptions of course and some stocks will push higher even after a Sell signal was posted for them, but my overall accuracy is at approximately 70% of signals.

Commentary for 12-16-2016 $ATVI $EXPE

New Buy Signals:

ATVI (Activision Blizzard Inc.) - my algorithm posted a Buy signal for this last night. Currently the stock is down some 1.4% from open so this provides less risk of entry.
As the chart below shows, one should be able to enter in this price level.



Stop Loss - $36.05 (Risk 1.1%)
Next Price Target - $37.92 (Reward 3.9%)
Risk:Reward - approximately 1:3.5

New Sell Signals:

EXPE (Expedia Inc.) - if you have a position in this stock, you may have already suffered quite a loss.
UltimateAlgorithm suggests sell now, because higher prices are unlikely in the near future.


Next drop target - $114 (-2.3% from last price).

To see general results of the algorithm click here.
Check out my Essential Reading List here (I may receive some compensation if you purchase anything on Amazon following my links)

Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.

General Stock Market Mood Commentary $SPY $DIA $QQQ

This is to update that the general market mood is Buy!
My UltimateAlgorithm posted a Buy signal on November 23rd. Since then, the S&P has increased in value by approximately 4%.

This means that every day I will be posting new buys and sells as the UltimateAlgorithm sends me daily updates regarding positions in the S&P 500.






Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my About page for a full disclaimer.